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Why does earnings goes up and down?
A few factors define how much return you get for your mining. This will be an example of ETH. We will first do an example calculation on how much ETH you will get for 1 MHs. If you care about USD, we will also analyze at the end for that.
Last update: 25.January 2023
Three factors are important, and one factor less important, when you need to understand why earnings both go up and down:
Block Time
This is the time it takes to find a new block on average. On the ETH network, at the time of writing this explanation, it was about 13.8 seconds.
Block Reward
This is how much ETH there is in each block that gets found, which is then rewarded to the miner (pool) that finds the block. This reward goes up and down but normally between 2.0 and 2.2 ETH. We will use 2.1 ETH in our calculations below!
Network hashrate
The more miners on the ETH network, the less reward will go to each miner. When it's profitable, the network hash rate will go up, and when it's not profitable, the network hash rate will go down as miners stop mining. At the time of writing this, the network hash rate on ETH is around 831 TH/s
The last, less important factor
There isis also a bit of luck involved, but this will equal over time. There is the luck of finding shares - if you are unlucky, you will find fewer shares - and get less paid by the mining pool. At the same time, if the mining pool is unlucky, the mining pool finds fewer blocks. The higher the hash rate you have as a miner, or the pool has - luck will be less a factor for your income.
Lets do a couple of examples of calculations!
Let's see how much ETH you get in 1 day of mining, with 1 MHs, based on two different network hash rates:

Blocks per day: 86400 sec/day / 13.8 sec = 6261 blocks/day
Block reward per day: 6261 * 2.1 ETH = 13148 ETH
Network hash rate: 831 THs = 831000000 MHs = ~0.0000158 ETH per MHs per day

Let's say the network hash rate goes down to 580 THs:
Network hash rate: 580 THs = 580000000 MHs = ~0.0000227 ETH per MHs per day
But what about USD per day?
The price of ETH goes up and down based on the market. Let's do some quick examples:

With a network hash rate of 831 THs:
ETH at $3800: 0.0000158 * 3800 = 0.06004 USD per MHs.
ETH at $2800: 0.0000158 * 2800 = 0.04424 USD per MHs.

With a network hash rate of 580 THs:
ETH at $3800: 0.0000227 * 3800 = 0.08626 USD per MHs.
ETH at $2800: 0.0000227 * 2800 = 0.06356 USD per MHs.
Marius L.
The creator/owner of goes by the alias r0ver2. Has a long experience with GPU mining and mining in general. After starting with home mining in 2017. Slowly building up the mining operation while gaining experience and knowledge - he joined SimpleMining's support team in 2020. Also been an active supporter of mmpOS since 2021 - and part of the testing team for lolMiner since mid-2021.
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